ኣብ ሳሪሓ ማሪሓ ኣለ ና እቲ ሓቂ ግን what is the truth in Togray ?
It is crystal clear but we are still hurting each other!
What Recent Evidence Suggests
• There are continuing warnings from observers and humanitarian agencies that the peace in Tigray is fragile, and that a return to wider conflict remains possible if tensions aren’t addressed. 
• One report (from the Atlas Institute) mentions new build-ups of Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) near towns such as Adigrat and Shire based on satellite imagery analyzed by UNOCHA. These are viewed as possible precursors to offensives if political/diplomatic negotiations break down. 
• The same source indicates that Eritrea has reinforced defensive positions around Badme, with tanks and heavy artillery. 
• Humanitarian access and services remain constrained: food aid flows are still vulnerable, and blockades or checkpoints continue to impose delays. 
Satellite Imagery of Military Build-ups
• In late September 2022, satellite images (Maxar) showed Ethiopian and Eritrean forces massing in Shiraro, a town in northwestern Tigray near the Eritrean border. There were visible deployments of heavy weapons and artillery in towns close to the border. 
• On 19 September 2022, images captured what appeared to be military vehicles, field guns etc. in the Eritrean village of Serha, across from the Tigrayan town of Zalambessa. This was argued to corroborate reports of a planned offensive into Tigray. 
- Human Rights & UN Reports
• The UN and other independent commissions reported widespread violations: extrajudicial killings, shelling of civilian-areas including markets/hospitals, sexual violence, displacement, and starvation or deprivation of basic services.
• A UN-appointed commission reported drone strikes on populated areas, use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects, and noted that civilian infrastructure (including camps for the displaced) was being hit. - Evidence of Civilian Harm & War Crimes
• Shelling in towns like Mekelle, Humera, Shire at the start of the war (late 2020) resulted in civilian deaths and injuries, destruction of homes and civilian structures. Human Rights Watch documented this.
• Ethnic killings: Incidents such as the Mai Kadra massacre (against Amhara civilians) and reprisals/killings of Tigrayans in areas captured by government forces or militia.
• Looting, forced displacement, denial of services: basic infrastructure (banking, telecommunications, electricity) was cut off in many places. Reports of destruction of crops and food stocks, blocking of humanitarian access. - Evidence of Starvation & Deprivation
• Multiple reports, including from U.N. bodies and NGOs, documented that civilians were suffering from malnutrition and lack of access to food. There were also claims that starvation or deprivation of food was being used, intentionally or as a consequence, of military blockades or operations.
• For example, in early 2024, there were reports of nearly 400 deaths from starvation in Tigray and Amhara regions in just a few months. - Mass Sexual Violence
• There is well-documented evidence of mass rape, forced pregnancy, sexual torture, particularly by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and allied forces, as well as serious, long-term health, psychological and social consequences. Many reports include medical records, survivor interviews, health worker testimony. - Massacres & Targeted Killings
• The Ziban Gedena massacre (4-7 December 2020) in northwestern Tigray: estimates of around 150-300 civilians killed by Eritrean forces.
• Other incidents: Mai Kadra killings of Tigraian civilians; reprisals after towns changed hands; extrajudicial killings by both government‐aligned forces and Amhara forces.
Internal Political Conflict Within TPLF / Tigray Administration
There remains a sharp split in Tigray’s leadership, mainly between Getachew Reda (leader of the Interim Regional Administration) and Debretsion Gebremichael, a long-time TPLF figure.
Factional clashes include:
• Seizure of local administrations by forces aligned with Debretsion (for example in Adi Gudem, Southeast Tigray) and taking over administrative functions (e.g. official seals) from those loyal to the Interim Administration.
• Dismissals of TDF generals by Getachew Reda, which have been rejected by the Debretsion faction. These disputes have sometimes spilled into violence and civilian protests. - Human Rights Violations and Evidence of Serious Abuse
Multiple reports continue to document grave abuses during and after the war:
• A report by Physicians for Human Rights and the Organization for Justice and Accountability in the Horn of Africa documents systematic sexual violence, forced pregnancy, sexual torture, and other violations by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces that may amount to crimes against humanity or potentially genocide.
• Women and girls remain particularly vulnerable; abuses include gang‐rape, forced pregnancy, and also some of the more extreme physical sexual violence. - Humanitarian Situation: Needs Remain Very High
• Many people remain displaced. While the 2022 peace deal reduced large-scale open combat, return and recovery have been slow.
• Food insecurity and risk of malnutrition remain severe. Access to aid is constrained by bureaucratic obstacles, damage to infrastructure (roads, health facilities), and security concerns.
• Basic public services (healthcare, education) are still disrupted in many areas. Some health infrastructure is badly damaged. - Risk of Renewed Conflict
• Because many terms of the peace agreement (Pretoria Agreement, Permanent Cessation of Hostilities) remain unfulfilled (such as disarmament, troop withdrawal, presence of external forces, full political reconciliation), there is wide concern among analysts that the region could slide back into war.
• Unresolved territorial disputes, especially involving Amhara region and potentially Eritrea, are a major flashpoint.
• The AU and others have called for calm, urging all sides to adhere to the peace deal and work through political channels. - Political Party Status / Governance Issues
• The legal status of the TPLF has been challenged; in some reports it has been banned or had its status revoked due to internal procedural issues (e.g., failure to hold a general assembly).
• There are attempts to forge new political entities: for example, a political party “Tigray Democratic Solidarity” (Simeret), led by Getachew Reda, has been registered (or provisionally registered).
• The Tigray Interim Council (or Administration) continues to operate, but its authority is contested in some zones; there are overlapping claims and in practice multiple authorities in some localities.
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Main Challenges & Risks
• Aid delivery & humanitarian access remain hampered by security issues, damaged infrastructure, unclear chains of command, and political interference.
• Accountability for abuses remains weak, with many survivors still lacking justice.
• Internally displaced persons (IDPs) face prolonged displacement without durable solutions; returns are difficult particularly in areas still under occupation or contested control.
• Economic reconstruction, rebuilding of basic services (health, education, roads), and reconciliation are lagging behind political rhetoric.
• The internal TPLF split adds complexity: governance is less stable, increasing risk that conflicts over local power could escalate into broader violence.
Let’s create honest dialogue and face the challenges ahead of us as Tigrayanes !!
Ephrem CPT media
