The two rounds of peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) marked a significant progress, although they did not ultimately result in the signing of an agreement. The meetings helped identify and map contested issues and design a process acceptable to both sides. However, despite hopes for a third round of talks following the collapse of the Dar es Salaam summit, this has not yet materialized.
Instead, the parties have resorted to escalating the conflict through increased armed confrontation and intensified propaganda. This escalation is presumed to be a strategy aimed at strengthening their bargaining positions for future negotiations. However, despite claims of battlefield gains and the government’s campaign to win public support, the renewed confrontation does not appear to have significantly altered dynamics of the conflict, making negotiation still the best solution available to both parties.
It is encouraging that both sides, at least rhetorically, continue to express commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the hostilities. However, given the abrupt and ominous end to the last round of talks and the subsequent escalation of armed confrontations, the much desired resumption of talks requires concrete confidence-building measures to be taken by the two parties to restore trust and optimism. These measures should include:
- Demonstrating a Renewed Commitment to Negotiation: In the previous instance, the government’s attempt to prevent the return of OLA’s delegation to the field, in violation of its agreement with mediators, caused significant setbacks to the peace initiative, overshadowing their disagreements on substantive negotiation points. This severely undermined the trust built over the last two years. Therefore, the government must reassure the OLA, the mediators, and the public that it is genuinely committed to finding a solution through negotiation and will adhere to mediation protocols. Concrete steps, such as the immediate and unconditional release of OLF leaders who remain incarcerated for the last five years despite being set free by the court of law on multiple occasions, could be a good signal.
- Honest Self-Assessment: The two parties should take stock of what has been achieved in the two rounds of talks thus far, and conduct an honest and thorough retrospective evaluation of what they could have done better. It is easy to pin the blame on the other side when setbacks are encountered but the hardest part is putting oneself to account for mistakes and missteps.
- Realistic Demands & Reasonable Concessions: The previous two rounds have clarified each side’s key issues and expectations, which is a positive step. In the next round of talks, both parties should shift away from maximalist positions and prepare detailed realistic demands and prepare to make reasonable concessions in advance to avoid wasting time and resources on unrealistic pretensions. Crucially, both parties should be ready to compromise and avoid counterproductive recriminations.
- Mediator’s Reflections: The mediators should also undertake their own assessment of the techniques and approaches utilized in the last rounds and remedy any mistakes or missteps to increase the chances of success in the next round.
- Continued Pressure and Encouragement: The international community, the diaspora, and the public at large should continue to encourage and put pressure on both parties to return to the negotiating table as soon as is practicable. Time is of the essence. With every passing day, countless lives are being lost and property destroyed due to the ongoing conflict.
