Ethiopian Enigmatic Politics, Tigray Predicament, and Global Apathy.Ghelawdewos Araia, PhD

This article intends to explore the complicated patterns of Ethiopian politics since the
emergence of a new regime in 2018, the genocidal war of Tigray, and the overall global
indifference with respect to the Tigray predicament. It will also critically examine the
inner dynamics regarding Ethiopian politics and the role of the plethora of domestic and
external actors, to carefully dissect and understand the complicated Ethiopian panorama,
and consequently come up with a substantial healing diagnosis for the heavily wounded
nation-state. I am attributing the concept of ‘nation-state’ to Ethiopia, only to indicate
that this country is a post-empire country of nation and nationalities that partially
achieved the self-determination of nationalities by forming autonomous regional states
under the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), but the project is still
unfinished, because many constellations of nationalities have yet to enjoy the status of a
self-governing entity.
To grasp the essence of the similitude and contrast of the complex Ethiopian politics
since the emergence of a new regime and the coming to power of Abiy Ahmed, I will
first examine the patterns, a methodology that we use in political science in examining
politics and society in general. Incidentally, Keren Yarhi-Milo, the Dean of Columbia
University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) said: “Political science is
largely about finding patterns, identifying key variables that produce those patterns and
may be even predict them.” Furthermore, Yarhi-Milo stated, “But it is also about the
human factor -the psychology of leaders. That is the part that I find most fascinating.” 1 On
top of patterns, however, understanding politics in the context of history and vice versa is
very crucial as well. What this means is that ‘knowledge of historical context provides a
means of producing more systematic knowledge of political science’. Moreover, as
Charles Tilly and Robert E. Goodwin convincingly argue, “The ultimate aim of political
science is to identify general laws of political process that cut across the time, place,
circumstances and previous history.” 2
I have indeed examined the patterns of Ethiopian politics of the early 1990s and predicted
the outcome of the establishment of the newly restructured FDRE and the formation of
nine autonomous regional states, and this was how I put it then: “The TGE’s policy of
Kilil and self-determination is commendable, but the consequence of fragmentation as a
result of new wave of ethnic political consciousness, and the inability of some minority
nationalities to become economically viable, would ultimately preoccupy Ethiopians to
otherwise unforeseen problem.” 3
What I predicted twenty-nine years ago should not be seen as an exceptionally unique
foretelling or vision seen in the context of political science; for a political scientist,
forecasting future developments is very much like an economist talking about the general

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trend of economic growth, income per capita, inflation etc. of future dates, or a
meteorologist forecasting weather patterns of ten days and assisting us to sort out our
daily plan. However, what I predicted has now become a haunting nightmare that I have
to live with: The Ethiopian enigmatic politics, Tigray predicament, and the global apathy.
When the EPRDF forces triumphantly entered Addis Ababa on 28 May1991, the
residents of the capital of Ethiopia greeted them with jubilation. The scene of jubilation
was dramatized by euphoria including some Addis Ababans riding on EPRDF’s tanks to
demonstrate the end of a brutal regime of Mengistu Haile-Mariam. Soon after the EPRDF
called the Addis Ababa Charter, in which couple of a dozen EPRDF-affiliated and non-
affiliated political groupings participated, although as expected, the formation of a
transitional government dominated by the EPRDF, and more so by the TPLF was a fait
accompli; by 1995, a post-transitional government accompanied by a constitution was
established, and Article 47 of the constitution declared the formation of nine autonomous
regions; and as stipulated in Article 8, the preamble of the constitution clearly stated, ‘we
the nation, nationalities, and peoples of Ethiopia’, and Article 39 granted the self-
determination, including up to secession to the various nationalities, but with
preconditions. Nonetheless, this was a new era in Ethiopian history; it was the first time
ever the regional states were allowed to administer themselves and flourish their
respective cultures and languages. However, this was not an entirely EPRDF invention; at
least in theory, the idea of self-determination of nationalities was propagated by the
Ethiopian Student Movement (ESM) in the 1960s and 1970s.
The EPRDF did well in terms overall economic development, especially in foundational
economy including infrastructure in roads that connected almost all Ethiopia; new
railway that linked Addis Ababa with Djibouti, light railway for Addis Abba commuting,
dams, including the Renaissance Dam, and the founding of fifty universities although
democracy, let alone a vibrant political culture and finding democratic institutions, was
never implemented. Ethiopia, under the EPRDF, thus, was ruled by an autocratic regime
and the latter, for the most part conducted secret meetings and Ethiopian politics became
more enigmatic and mystified. In large measure, the Ethiopian people became bystanders
in their own affairs. They were effectively made onlookers and/or non-participants in
Ethiopian politics.
The Derg that ruled Ethiopia for seventeen years, first started out with a motto of
‘Ethiopia First without Bloodshed’, but it soon turned Ethiopia into a bloodbath nation. In
a very similar fashion, when Abiy Ahmed started out in April 2018, he came up with the
idea of Medemer that ultimately was published as a book; Medemer literally means ‘to
get together’ or hold together, very much like the Swahili term of Harambee (pulling
together). Medemer was accompanied by ‘peace, love, and unity’ and by the infectious
Abiy’s smile. Ethiopians were impressed by Abiy’s promise of reform, and scholars like
Mesfin Woldemariam said, ‘Abiy and Lema may have descended from heaven’ to rescue
Ethiopia from total failure; admittedly, I too was impressed with Abiy’s initial
performances and even wrote an article in support of his reforms. But what happened
later was the exact opposite of the initial promise: Ethiopia was turned to hell from
beneath the Ethiopian ground itself.
All the above regimes, mainly the Derg and the EPRDF were influenced by the Marxist
ideology; EPRP and MEISONE were also influenced by Marxism; the latter two left-
wing parties, that were initially the promise and hope for Ethiopia, conducted homicide at

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a higher level by killing one another, but ultimately, they too were wiped out from the
Ethiopian political landscape.
The killing spree of the Derg, the EPRP, and MEISONE clearly demonstrate the lack
thereof of Ethiopian ethos and values that flourished during the long period of
independent existence of the of the socio-political structures of traditional as well as
modern Ethiopian society, and a more obvious conundrum is the disconnect of these
regimes from Ethiopian history, especially from the good aspect of Ethiopian values
filled with tolerance. Good examples of the latter value system are Emperor Galawdewos
(1540-1559) debate with the Portuguese missionaries on doctrinal issues in his court; he
debated with them on the nature of Christ and other doctrines that separates the Orthodox
faith from the Catholic teachings, and he respected and tolerated his opponents, and
finally he won the debate and wrote a book entitled Confessions of Faith. A similar
tolerant debate was conducted in Gondar, when Emperor Yohannes I (1667-1682)
instructed his vizier by the name Kostantinos to interrogate the then visiting Bishop of
Armenia; Kostantinos, like Galawdewos, was tolerant and respectful to the Armenians,
but the objective of his interrogation was to find out whether Armenian orthodoxy was in
par with that of Ethiopia or not.
And in ancient Aksum, the kings reigned over their dominion and ruled with justice, and
among the Aksumites Ezana stands out; this brilliant king prays to God as follows: ‘May
the Lord of Heaven make my kingdom strong. …I will rule the people with righteousness
and justice and will not oppress them.’
It is beyond the scope of this article to present in detail the legacy of Aksum, but the
latter’s impact on the larger Ethiopian society was abundantly and clearly exhibited in
medieval Ethiopia of the Zagwe Dynasty (1000-1270) especially in architecture and
literature, and the Gondar period in terms of St. Yared’s legacy of Qine (metaphoric dual
meanings of words), Zema (music), and the phonetic Geez alphabets.
To be fair to EPRP and MEISONE, before they began killing one another, they had
conducted a short-lived but lively debate during the formative period of the Ethiopian
February Revolution, but it did not continue, and it vanished rather like a
phantasmagoria. By then, I could argue now in retrospect, that it was not entirely the fault
of the EPRP and MEISONE; after all, these political organizations were the byproducts
of the predominantly feudal Ethiopian society that had lost all the good values fostered by
successive civilizations. Ethiopia, by then, indeed had forgotten its memories of the good
values, and as Edward Gibbons once said in his The Fall of the Roman Empire (Chapter
47), “Encompassed by their enemies of their religion, the Ethiopians slept near a
thousand years, forgetful of the world, by whom they were forgotten.” Though
exaggerated, Gibbon’s statement is true because feudal Ethiopia became anachronistic,
enigmatic, and mystic.
The ruling party also unnecessarily began to intimidate and arrest journalists and
opposition leaders, and by its very action it suffocated the fundamentals of democracy
such as the freedom of speech and press, peaceful demonstrations, and open political
debates.
The Derg military regime presided over a totalitarian state that was in the business of
fighting the nationality fronts in Ethiopia, and the Eritrean secessionist fronts of ELF and
EPLF, while at the same time conducting urban wars against the youth, the intellectual,

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and worker’s unions. Its mission was to arrest, torture, and eliminate all political forces
that were opposed to the Mengistu-Hailemariam government; ironically, the Derg also
fought the Somali invading forces and exhibited patriotic zeal to defend Ethiopia and was
determined to defeat the Somali. Unlike the Abiy regime that altogether betrayed
Ethiopian sovereignty, by giving up land to Sudan and by inviting foreign forces to attack
Tigray, an Ethiopian state, the Derg never compromised Ethiopian national interests. This
makes Ethiopia a good example of enigmatic politics and mystic par excellence as in
impressionist canvas art.
The EPRDF government also did not betray the national interest of Ethiopia, and on the
contrary, it defended its sovereignty at the Badme war (1998-2000) against the invading
EPLF Eritrean forces, but it too suffered the dual nature that one can convincingly
attribute to enigmatic politics. However, we must employ comparative analyses to further
understand the similarities and differences of the various regimes under discussion.
Everything is relative in the universe, as we know it; thus, the EPRDF government was
by far the best compared to the brutal regime of Mengistu Haile-Mariam that wiped out
the potential leaders of Ethiopia by a nation-wide Red Terror; and by the same token,
Haile Selassie’s government was by far better than the Derg military government because
it was relatively tolerant and a more kinder regime; the Abiy regime is the exact opposite
and antidote to the Meles-led government because the latter at least brought a twenty-
seven year period of peace and stability with economic growth that was never attained in
modern Ethiopian history.
Social change is inevitable and admissible if the objective is to benefit the larger society
and meet the welfare of citizens, and as Alice Walker aptly argues in her Meridian,
struggle is a precondition and/or prerequisite to social change, but in the Ethiopian case
and under Abiy Ahmed’s umbrella Prosperity Party, the synthesis or so-called reform
was total destruction and pain-induced grief; a destruction that virtually eliminated the
achievements of the EPRDF in the foundational economy and brought death and
pestilence to Ethiopians. While the reality on the ground in Ethiopia is abundantly clear
to domestic and foreign observers, that the country is torn apart by wars in Oromia,
Amhara etc., some narrow-minded chauvinist elements attempted to paint a positive
image to Abiy by either telling the Ethiopian audience that ‘Dr. Abiy is a highly educated
man and a patriot’ or by making a film that eulogizes him and even portray him as if he
declared war on Tigray for the sake of the Motherland. One such film produced is ‘For
Love of the Motherland’, a film with egregious state of denial of reality by dramatic bias
against the people of Tigray, and a film that wishfully want to erase the genocide that
took place in Tigray between 2020 and 2022. However, it is too little too late for the film
to change the mindset of Ethiopians; had it been produced in the middle of the war, it
could have significantly persuade Ethiopians to view the war as patriotic war, but after
the PP itself made peace with the TPLF, but not with the people of Tigray, Ethiopians
began to see the mistakes and crime of the Abiy regime, not to mention the western world
that was well aware of the heavy tolls the people of Tigray paid during the war, and for
international organizations like UNICEF, ICRC, Doctors without Borders, and mediums
like the BBC, CNN, AP, the New York Times, the Washington Post, National Public
Radio (NPR), to mention some of the many that were in Tigray, the film is meretricious
and a laughingstock, to say the least.
Notwithstanding Theodros Teshome’s ‘For Love of the Motherland’, the world knew
well about the predicament of Tigray, and although it is a belated sympathy and/or

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empathy to the people of Tigray, the President of Ethiopia, at the invitation of the
Transitional Government of Tigray visited Tigray for the 128 th celebration of the victory
of Adwa, and delivered a speech that a sane person with conscience could do to the
victims of genocide, and wept like a human being; unlike the film makers and depraved
elements, Sahle-Work Zewde came close to the good old Ethiopian values, despite her
contradictory statement of ‘internal and external enemies of Ethiopia’ that she stated in
one of her speeches during the formative period of the war of Tigray. Quite obviously,
when the drums of war were orchestrated by Abiy and his cronies, the ‘internal enemy’
was the TPLF, and soon after the predicament of Tigray was conceived. By predicament,
however, I do not mean to employ the literal meaning of the word like a difficult and
puzzling situation, although this was what exactly the people of Tigray also encountered.
Nevertheless, beyond the literal meaning, it is of paramount importance to figure out
what gave rise to the Tigray predicament, the atrocities and the genocide etc.
In many of my presentations and interviews, I have argued consistently that the Tigray
war was a geopolitical war, in which many domestic and foreign actors participated,
some directly and others indirectly. An allied force of the Ethiopian National Defense
Forces (ENDF), the Eritrean troops, the Amhara Fano/Militia/Special Forces, the Somali
auxiliary forces, the United Arab Emirates was established to surround and destroy one
small, but very important, regional state of Tigray; the dress rehearsal was manifested in
many ways, including the secret deals of the domestic actors, mainly Fano and Abiy;
another secret dealing between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki (these two men met
fourteen times in Asmara and Addis Ababa to plan out their grand war strategy against
Tigray); another dress rehearsal was the Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates offer of
money and medals to both Abiy and Isaias. Once the war was unleashed against Tigray,
other actors like Turkey and Iran were also involved by supplying drones; on the
diplomatic front, China and Russia also played a role in supporting the war and vetoing
UNSC resolutions related to the Tigray war.
I am not a geography determinist, but when I reason that the war of Tigray is a
geopolitical war, it is meant to clarify that the involvement of multiple actors has a stake
in the Horn of Africa, that is well positioned between the Red Sea and the Nile Valley,
and geopolitics is handy for the critical examination of the complex Tigray war. He who
controls the Red Sea corridor and the Nile Valley controls the potential wealth (oil, water,
minerals etc.) of this vast region, or controls the strategic waterway for the transportation
of any commodity wherever its origin may be.
The domestic forces of Shaebia, Fano, and the federal govt of Ethiopia facilitate the
transaction of commodities of corporations of the most affluent and powerful countries,
but at the same time, they are interested in looting property, grabbing land, and exploiting
resources from their target, that is Tigray; simultaneously they fulfil the national interests
of their “invisible” master’s, whose profile is not easily detectable. The other regional
actors like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate are more interested in the Red Sea
and in promoting the national interests of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and
extending their common market into the Horn of African countries, particularly into
Ethiopia, with special interest in investing in agriculture.
Most Western nations, including the US, UK, Germany, France etc. at least favored the
peaceful resolution to the conflict in Tigray, and some, like the US Congress, EU
parliament, Irish parliament even condemned the atrocities against the people of Tigray,
but none of them said genocide was committed in Tigray. Two gentlemen that came very

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close to attributing genocide to the war in Tigray are, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken
for his ‘ethnic cleansing in western Tigray’ statement, and Senator Bob Menendez of
New Jersey for his intrepid or plucky words of “yes, genocide happened, and I said so”.
At any rate, the West was by far the best ally for Tigray, but this ally apparently lacked
principle and its verbosity was characterized by double standard; it was difficult to
clearly decipher whether the West is with Abiy or with Tigray, and as a result the Tigray
predicament continued. The confusing stand of the West is best exemplified by rewarding
Abiy of a Nobel Peace Prize; the White House giving medal to Abiy for his gardens and
planting trees; a joint prayer of the Alabama’s senator James Inhofe with Abiy Ahmed;
and the ‘Agricola Medal’ for Abiy by the FAO.
After two years of war (November 2020 to November 2022), however, the United States
brokered peace between Tigray and the Federal government of Ethiopia; hence the
Pretoria Peace Agreement. In the Pretoria accord, it was the US diplomats, not the AU
actors that played a decisive role in the making and fruition of the negotiations, although
Olusegun Obasanjo and Uhuru Kenyatta also deserve some merit for facilitating the
overall operations of the Agreement, both in Pretoria and in Nairobi.
There is no doubt that Pretoria brought relative peace for Tigray and ceasefire was
observed, but the Agreement was not fully implemented. For instance, Article 5 of the
Agreement promised that the Federal government of Ethiopia will be responsible in
making sure that occupying forces like Fano and Eritrean forces leave Tigray, but this
never happened, and the Eritrean forces still occupy Tigray territory from Shiraro to Adi
Irob, and the Fano are in control of western Tigray and parts of southern Tigray, and due
to this shenanigans or the mischievous conduct of the Federal government, Fano and
Eritrean govt (aka Shaebia), more than one million internally displaced persons (IDP) of
Tigray were unable to go back to their homes of Irob, Zalambessa and other parts of
Gulo-Mekeda, Shiraro, Tselemti, Tsegede, Wolkait, and Humera etc. Adding insult to
injury, the Tigray Transitional Government, that is now on a shaky ground and unable to
operate as an effective government could not deliver the necessary help to its IDPs, and
in the middle of all these the Tigray predicament has been exacerbated and the suffering
of the people continues unabated; the Tigray transitional government, led by Getachew
Reda, can best be depicted as ‘shadowy existence’ despite the fact that it maintained good
diplomatic relations with the West, particularly with special envoy Mike Hamer and US
ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin Jose Massinga.
While the people of Tigray and other nationalities of Ethiopia, including innocent
Amhara, Oromo, Kimant, Agaw etc. now find themselves between crossfires of the
warring factions, it looks the world has opted for indifference; most of the world is now
apathetic to the condition of Ethiopians. When the Russian-Ukraine war erupted, Europe
and the Unted States delivered massive materiel, financial, and humanitarian assistance to
Ukraine and the latter could have not sustained the destructive Russian offensive without
the help of the West. It is understandable why the West actively responded to Ukraine but
became indifferent with respect to the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, and
more so why it became apathetic regarding the suffering of the Tigray people. First and
foremost, Ukraine is a European country, Tigray is not a country, and it is in Africa;
Tigray is not a sovereign nation and a member of the AU; it is a regional state within
Ethiopia, although it is not represented in the Ethiopian parliament, a sham parliament.
The latter could have expressed the absence of Tigray in the law-making body as a major
loophole in the operations of the parliament, but it is acquiescent and opted for silence
like the apathetic global diplomats.

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By way of going back to the enigma, predicament, and apathy of global actors about
Ethiopia as a whole, and the encirclement of Tigray by local and regional actors, it is
important to address ‘disaster capitalism’ as the root cause for all the mess in Ethiopia.
On top of the allied forces that destroyed much of Tigray’s industries, agriculture,
schools, institutions, including religious institutions, Ethiopia is done away via ‘shock
doctrine’ a la Naomi Klein, and could no longer claim its yesteryear status of an exemplar
nation in Africa. What Naomi discusses on ‘the rise of disaster capitalism’ in relation to
many countries like Argentina, Chile, Honduras, Trinidad, Iraq, Korea etc. can easily be
equated to the current reality of Ethiopia.
“In one of his most influential essays,” says Naomi Klein, “Friedman articulated
contemporary capitalism’s core tactical nostrum, what I have come to understand as
shock doctrine. He observed that ‘only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real
change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are
lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing
policies, to keep them alive or available until the politically impossible becomes
politically inevitable.” 4
Should crisis be a precondition to development and change? I personally believe that
reform, however slow, is preferred than a revolutionary and violent undertaking for social
change. Peaceful reform would constructively restructure the social and political milieu,
without bloodshed and without destroying industries and institutions. By contrast, violent
government policy could bring havoc to the larger society and kill thousands of people,
not to mention the millions of internally displaced persons, and the thousands who flee
war zones and become refugees. This is what exactly happened in Tigray and the rest of
Ethiopia.
In my argument and wishful thinking above, I am perhaps negating realpolitik and
pragmatism and rather daydreaming moral considerations. Naomi Klein tells us that
“sadistic acts [were] carried out by antidemocratic regimes, were in fact either committed
with the deliberate intent of terrorizing the public or actively harnessed to prepare the
ground for the introduction of radical free market “reforms.” 5
So far, that is, since Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, all I have witnessed in Tigray
and the rest of Ethiopia is state terrorism unleashed against innocent people, and no
“new” capitalist accumulation has surfaced on the Ethiopian landscape. On top of the
Milton Friedman Chicago School of Economics doctrine of crisis-impregnated market
economy phenomenon, some international financial institutions like the World Bank and
IMF also endorsed the idea of crisis-laden liberal economy. Interestingly, “for years,
there had been rumors that the international financial institutions had been dabbling in the
art of “pseudo-crisis”, as Williamson put it, in order to bend countries to their will, but it
was difficult to prove. The most extensive testimony came from Davison Budhoo, an
IMF staffer, turned whistle-blower, who accused the organization of cooking the books in
order to doom the economy of a poor but strong-willed country.” 6
It is abundantly clear now that Abiy and his cronies were committed from day one to
‘cooking the books and doom the Ethiopian economy’ and completely shatter and destroy
the economy of Tigray by conducting a major war. The destruction wrought on the
Ethiopian economy is incalculable and the country is now on the verge of total collapse,

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and unless peace and stability are miraculously restored, Ethiopia could implode and
subsequently a major crisis could engulf the entire Horn of Africa region.
Is the West going to remain apathetic with respect to the impending Horn of Africa
catastrophe or take right away take action to rescue the faltering nations from
disappearance, and by default invest in its strategic interests? I believe that Europe and
the United States will come with newly restructured policies regarding the peace and
stability of the Horn of Africa; otherwise, they too will lose grounds in promoting their
respective national and strategic interests. The situation in the Horn at present is
extremely dire; back in July 2021, I was compelled to produce an article entitled “Will
Ethiopia as a Nation-State Survive the Present Ordeal and Counterrevolution?” and this is
how I reasoned then:
“In my opinion, there could be two possible scenarios: 1) Ethiopia will survive and its
historic grand qualities, if the federalist potential forces successfully gather momentum,
solidify their joint struggle, and assume state power, and perhaps restructure the
Ethiopian state via national reconciliation; 2) on the other hand, if the
counterrevolutionary forces hold on to power in the midst of protracted major and small
wars, the country’s economy will collapse beyond repair, its political structure will be
shattered, and the country will implode; Ethiopia will either suffocate and strangle itself
like Somalia, or its component parts will go their own separate ways; in the first scenario,
the regional states will regroup, meet again, and salvage Ethiopia from disintegration, and
in the second scenario they will never meet again and they won’t have a common
overarching identity called ‘Ethiopian’ nor home that they call ‘Ethiopia’.” 7
I started out with ‘patterns’ and ‘factors’ in examining the current Ethiopian situation and
frightening scenario of its future, but the methodology I have employed so far would be
inadequate unless it is supplemented by the ‘human factor’, the ‘psychology of leaders’.
The latter could be secondary vis-à-vis the patterns in politics and the general trend of
history, but they are important, nonetheless.
It is beyond the scope of this essay to cover the psychology of all leaders at all levels in
Ethiopia; it is sufficient to discuss the personalities of Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki,
who are responsible for all the mess in Ethiopia. The two leaders may have a common
mission and common agenda that they may share, but beyond their commonalities, they
could have significant differences because they have different backgrounds and
upbringing. At any rate, based on their overall appearance in public, their verbosity, and
their mingling with the ordinary people, both suffer from over-inflated or egotistical
sense of oneself; the latter is almost always a reflection of a limited pool of mental
resources; hence ill-confidence in handling matters of politics, including problems
associated with conflict and conflict resolution. Instead of resolving problems, they cover
it up by waging incessant wars, accompanied by their pompously narcissistic behaviors.
In a recent interview with two Oromo “journalists”, for instance, Isaias Afwerki was
sardonically responding to questions pertaining to the TPLF; he was grimily mocking or
cynical, and as a result (and as always), he did not answer the questions or address the
issues; he resorted rather to blaming the TPLF for all the ethnic divide and subsequent
mess in Ethiopia. In a similar fashion, Abiy Ahmed addresses issues with his sardonic
smile (his original infectious smile has now disappeared), while at the same time he
seems to enjoy celebratory events, including admiration extended to him by an audience
that he himself invites; a good example of the latter is Abiy’s meeting with the Ethiopian

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Orthodox Church leaders and representatives from all over Ethiopia; the clergy spoke one
by one and gave honor to Abiy and there is no doubt that this occasion boosted his ego.
Why has Abiy suddenly initiated open dialogue with the Tigray community and
Orthodox religious leaders (followed with the Protestants and Ethiopian Muslims)? There
is no doubt this open debate or exchange of ideas and experiences will beneficial,
especially for the advancement of political culture and democracy. However, given the
nature and characteristics of the Abiy regime and the overall messy politics, not to
mention the incessant wars in Amhara and Oromia and elsewhere, I personally will
evaluate the Abiy discussion platform with skepticism.
Both leaders may suffer from disillusionment and hallucination, but I am not quite sure
about the latter. A couple of decades ago, one observer of Eritrean affairs by the name
Burhan Ali, stated in his writing, that Isaias in fact suffers from “hallucinating and
fantasizing and visualizing himself a grand waali by deputation…” Additionally, the
writer makes a passing remark with respect to Isaias as “the dictator’s fog shrouded state
of mind.” 8
One other interesting piece that I read recently and one that could help us better
understand the nature and characteristics of dictators is entitled The Psychology of
Dictators: Power, Fear, and Anxiety. This title argues that “Dictators often display
consistent pattern of grandiosity, coupled with a vindictive nature commonly associated
with narcissistic personality disorder. They have a deep sense of entitlement and see
themselves as exceptional individuals who deserve admiration, making it difficult for
them to empathize with feelings and needs of others. Dictators also share similar
characteristics such as a need for admiration, excessive paranoia, and ruthless brutality.
There is no personality type for bad behavior, and a domineering dictator is an example
of someone operating outside the boundaries of healthy balance.” 9
There is no doubt that both Isaias and Abiy have exhibited their vindictive nature and
ruthless brutality against the people of Tigray. However, this kind of behavior is old-
fashioned, and we have now new dictators, who want to hold on to power by ‘faking
democracy’ as presented below. For Isaias, it may be a little too late to imitate the new
breed of dictators for he has squandered all the support and admiration he used to get
from Eritreans, not to mention nature’s intervention in longevity. But, Abiy, if he
survives the massive and complicated Ethiopian situation, could have a chance to emulate
the new dictators.
Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman, in their Spin Dictators, came up with a splendid idea
of capturing the behavior of the new dictators, and they have convincingly argued that
“In recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongman has been redesigning
authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world. In place of overt,
mass repression, rulers such as Vladmir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Victor Orban,
control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures.
Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Spin dictators
trace how leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Quan Yew and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori
pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power.
They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic
institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for
financial and reputational benefits.” 10

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Finally, beyond the psychology of power, I like to discuss the power nexus itself as a
problem by itself, or in other words ‘how power corrupts’ or change the mindset of
leaders. In 2013, in my book entitled Ethiopia: Democracy, Devolution of Power, and
Developmental State, I reasoned that “Power obsession is not unique to Ethiopians; it is
in fact universal, but the power nexus is complex and intriguing, and individuals at the
power helm undergo considerable change in their personality. “When people experience
power,” says Deborah Gruenfeld , “they stop to control themselves; they forget that there
are social consequences.”…”Disinhibition involves acting on your own desires in a social
context without considering the effects of your actions. It implies a heightened sensitivity
to your own internal state and also a reduced sensitivity to others interests and
experiences. It implies action orientation in pursuit of a goal and also the possibility that
might use as means to an end.” 11
What is to be done now? I have discussed in this essay at some length many important
issues pertaining to the enigma of Ethiopian politics, the predicament of Tigray, and the
global indifference. All problems and complex issues were discussed contextually, but I
would be remiss if I skip possible solutions to all the problems.
I will enumerate below the recommended solutions in their prioritized right order:

1. The first solution, quite obviously, is the restoration of peace in all Ethiopia.
   Peace is a precondition to virtually any undertaking, including reconstruction, a
   post-conflict major project; in this undertaking the federal government and the
   respective regional states should play an historic role.
2. National reconciliation is of utmost importance in ironing out the differences
   between the various warring factions and it can be done only by sitting on a round
   table and thoroughly discuss differences in a candid and open debate. In the
   national reconciliation conference, all Ethiopian nation and nationalities should be
   represented. Civic organizations, political parties, religious organizations,
   professional groups, scholars and intellectuals etc. should also be involved.
3. The rule of law, security and stability must be maintained in all Ethiopia. At
   present, due to absence of security, citizens are cowed and intimidated by ‘dusk
   robbers’ who kidnap people and request ransom. This is happening under the
   watch of the government, and because residents in all cities from Adigrat in the
   north to Hawassa in the south are frightened of kidnapping, they won’t dare travel
   after 6 pm outside their domicile. The absence of good governance at all levels
   must be restored.
4. All Ethiopians should begin to think in a very profound way why their country
   and/or their respective zone or Kilil is now in total shambles and whether the
   country is going to continue as a nation that belongs to the world government (the
   UN), and the possibility of living side by side peaceably? These fundamental
   questions should be answered in order to proceed forward.
   Notes:
5. Columbia, Columbia University magazine, winter 2023-24, p. 27
6. Cited in Ghelawdewos Araia, Ethiopia: Democracy, Devolution of Power, and
   Developmental State
7. Ghelawdewos Araia, Ethiopia: The Political Economy of Transition, University
   Press of America, 1995, p. 166

11

4. Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, Metropolitan
   Books, 2007
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   Education for Africa (IDEA), 2024